![]() ![]() ![]() Therefore, although the introduction of COVID-19 into Minneapolis/St. Paul with only smaller regional airports in other cities. Like many other regions, Minnesota is characterized by having one main international airport in Minneapolis/St. The augmented model is demonstrated on viral spread data collected for the 87 counties in the US State of Minnesota (with population 5,639,589) between March 22 and Jand is calibrated with passenger car transportation data obtained during the same time period that tells the number of individual vehicles driving between counties in the entire state. These trips differ from long-distance travel since the travelers may only spend a short time at their destination, and will likely return to their home by the end of the day or within a day or two. To study the extent to which local travel influences the spread of COVID-19, we modify the commonly used susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to account for increased transmission risk associated with short-term travel that may result from intrastate travel. ![]() By “local” or “short-term” travel, we refer to an infectious person traveling from city i to city j, infecting others at j, then soon thereafter returning to i (as opposed to remaining in j for treatment). Specifically, while long-distance travel (e.g., by airplane) may help spread the virus over long distances, local travel (e.g., by passenger vehicle) may help accelerate the spread of the virus in a smaller geographic area. While there is indication that travel is one mechanism by which the virus has spread globally, the extent to which local travel influences the spread of the virus is yet unknown. While many transmission cases are from direct contact within the community, one factor that may facilitate this human-to-human transmission is the underlying transportation network, which acts to propagate the virus between communities. By mid March, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. The virus quickly spread throughout China and, within several weeks, cases were being reported across Asia. In December, 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first identified in Hubei Provence, China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Ĭompeting interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: The data is archived on Github and Zenodo with DOI 10.5281/zenodo.3955455.įunding: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. Received: AugAccepted: JanuPublished: January 22, 2021Ĭopyright: © 2021 Levin et al. We find that if driving trips remain at current levels, a substantial increase in COVID-19 cases may be observed in Minnesota, while decreasing intrastate travel could help contain the virus spread.Ĭitation: Levin MW, Shang M, Stern R (2021) Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota. The calibrated model also predicts the proportion of infections that were detected. Short-term travel associated with driving is predicted to be a significant contributor to the historical and future spread of COVID-19. Using our modified SEIR model that considers local short-term travel, we are able to better explain the virus spread than using the long-term travel SEIR model. We consider the case study of the US state of Minnesota, and calibrated the proposed model with travel and viral spread data. We modify the common susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) virus spread model and investigate the extent to which short-term travel associated with driving influences the spread of the virus. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spread of COVID-19. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019.
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